The Fantasy Basketball Stock Watch 07-02-08

Andrea Bargnani – Power Forward/Center – Remember this guy? He was a big-time sleeper pick, if you can call a former number one overall draft pick a sleeper, going into this season. He rewarded those who drafted him with an awful December, averaging only 5.3 points and 2.1 rebounds on 30% shooting. However, he finished the month of January strong, posting averages of 13.8 points and 5.5 rebounds with 2 three pointers a game in his last four games last month. In his first two games in February, he has been outstanding, scoring 25 points a game on 56% from the field. It appears that he has finally shaken his first half shooting woes and is now worth a spot on your roster.

Josh Childress – Shooting Guard/Small Forward – In case you missed it, there is not a hotter player right now than Childress, at least when it comes to shooting percentage. He has hit 23 of his last 29 shoots from the field over his last three games – both Atlanta wins. No way is he going to keep up this pace, although his career field goal percentage is over 50%. However, it is a good indicator that he should be in line for solid minutes for the foreseeable future. He is a good rebounder and great free throw shooter as well.

Pau Gasol – Power Forward/Center – Lakers – The Lakers seem like the big winners in a trade in which they received Gasol from Memphis – at least in the short term. Gasol’s fantasy teams should also benefit from his move to Los Angeles. Despite having his friend Juan Carlos Navarro on board, Gasol was unhappy with the Grizzlies as the years of losing finally began to wear on him. The move to the contending Lakers should rejuvenate the talented Spaniard and his statistics. He should also benefit by playing next to a suddenly more team-oriented Kobe Bryant.

Troy Murphy – Power Forward/Center – Pacers – Similar to Andrea Bargnani, Murphy can be a great source of three pointers from a center eligible player. And similar to Bargnani, Murphy had his shooting troubles this season, posting a field goal percentage of under 40% in November and in January. He has started to get warm, shooting 48% in his last five games averaging 15.2 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 2 three pointers during that span. Murphy is a streaky player, but he is talented enough to maintain averages around 14 points, 7 boards, and 1.5 three pointers for the rest of the season.

Shaquille O’Neal – Center – Suns – A team in contention would not give up a talented all-around player like Shawn Marion unless they planned on using whatever they got back in return. O’Neal is clearly on the downside of his Hall-of-Fame career and has battled injuries all season. However, he still can be a force when healthy and properly motivated. He is not a top option at center due to his well documented trouble at the line, but he can still help with several categories including field goal percentage, points, rebounds, and blocked shots.

Josh Smith – Forward – Hawks – Smith has improved his scoring in every month so far this season. However, that does not begin to approach the sensational development of his game. He neared his second triple-double game twice this month with 19 points, 9 assists, and 9 blocks against the 76ers and 17 point, 9 rebounds, and 9 assists with 5 blocks against the Lakers. In other words, this guy is really good. It will probably require a first round pick to get him in next year’s fantasy draft if he stays healthy.

LaMarcus Aldridge – Power Forward/Center – Blazers – Aldridge was a fantastic draft day find as he came out of the gate red-hot. However, we have seen his scoring average and shooting percentage decrease in each month this season. The last time that he scored more than 20 points in a game was the last day in December. His decent, but not great, rebounding has stayed fairly steady all season and he has actually gotten a little better at blocking shots lately, posting his only 4 block games this season in 2008. Aldridge is still putting up good enough numbers and is a talented enough player not to give up on. Nevertheless, he has not played lately like the superstar that he seemed on the path to be earlier this season.

Anthony Johnson – Point Guard – Hawks – Johnson was a popular free agent pick up in mid-December, especially for those teams that need some help in the assists category. He has lost time recently to the disappointing rookie Acie Law and the underrated veteran Tyronn Lue. Johnson’s decreased minutes have caused his statistics to be reduced to the point below fantasy consideration, including averaging only 4 assists over his past five games. The most frustrating part of this five game cold streak is that it came on the heels of a 12 point, 11 assist game against the Blazers.

Jason Maxiell – Power Forward/Center – This one breaks my heart a little. All indicators this pre-season pointed to a breakout season for Maxiell. However, someone forgot to tell Flip Saunders, as Maxiell has managed to play just over 22 minutes a game. It is not as though he has not produced when he is on the court, putting up 11.3 points, 6.2 rebounds, and 1.3 blocks on 56.5% shooting in six games as a starter. The problem is that the Pistons play their starters a ton of minutes, leaving only scraps on many nights for bench players like Maxiell.

Jason Williams – Point Guard – Heat – Williams is a likely loser in Shaquille O’Neal/ Shawn Marion deal, because Miami also received Marcus Banks in the deal. Williams has been terribly inconsistent this season, playing a position that demands a steady hand. He was already having trouble beating out Chris Quinn for playing time, now you put the quick, defensive minded Banks in the mix. One thing that is in Williams’ favor is his ability to not turnover the ball a bunch.

Jarrett Jack – Guard – Blazers – Jack has been a disappointment this season. So much so, that his name has been mentioned in trade rumors, including a three team trade involving the Nets and Jason Kidd. The Blazers have been waiting for his adjustment to his role and inconsistent minutes coming off the bench. It appears that it is finally starting to happen. In his first two games in February, Jack has averages of 14.5 points, 7 rebounds, 5.5 assists, 1.5 steals, and 1.5 three pointers on 53% shooting. Granted, this is just two games, but they were two very, very good games. They definitely have my attention.

Kyle Korver – Small Forward – Jazz – When Korver has been worth having around, it has been for one reason – his three point shooting. He is not going to give you regular production in much of anything else. After shooting a un-Korver like three point percentage in the mid-thirties for most of the season, he is starting to get his three point stroke back. He has connected on two-thirds of his attempts in his first three February games.

Bostjan Nachbar – Small Forward – Nets – Following a nine game losing streak, the Nets turned to Nachbar for an offensive spark. He has played well enough to see his minutes increase in four of his last five games. That is the kind of positive trend that should have caught the attention of the fantasy basketball world. During those five games, he has put up 13.4 points, 5 rebounds, and 1.6 three pointers a game. The most impressive part of this run is the fact that he has done all of this with Vince Carter and Richard Jefferson still healthy and active.

Charlie Villanueva – Forward – Bucks – Villanueva has done this before, right? He has tempted and teased us with his immense basketball talent. And then, when you think that he has finally put it all together and is on the road to become a fantasy star, his statistics all but disappear from the box scores. So what is different now? Probably nothing. But Yi Jianlian has not put together a very good game since mid-January and is out for a few games with a bum shoulder. So perhaps he is worth a gamble if you happen to have a roster spot available.

The Deep End:

Marcus Banks – Guard – Heat – Call me an idealist or maybe just nostalgic. But I remember back a few years, when the Celtics had high hopes that Banks would run the point for them for the next decade. He struggled to get consistent minutes partly due to his shooting and turnover problems in his two plus years in Boston. He was finally given a longer leash after being traded to Minnesota during the 2005-06 season. In over 30 minutes a game, Banks posted averages of 12 points, 4.7 assists, and 1.2 steals for the Timberwolves. He was buried on the depth chart behind Steve Nash and Leandro Barbosa in Phoenix over the past year and a half. Banks could get another opportunity to be a starter in Miami. He is still only 26 years old, so there is plenty of upside to his game.