Raise your hands if you are completely exasperated by the 2007-08 fantasy basketball season. Your nurses won’t undo the straps on your straight jacket for you, will they? I know the feeling. I’m a hair’s-width away from being committed myself.
I’m stuck in sixth place. Man, sixth place. In fantasy basketball that might as well be 178th place. It is so hard to move in the standings at this time of year. My only shot is to openly root for everyone else’s players to get injured.
Ah, fantasy sports. It sure brings out the best in us. Hopefully you are still in the running for a shot at your league title unlike me, your humble servant and omniscient expert on everything. We are about to enter a crucial stretch on the fantasy hoops schedule - the time after the Super Bowl and before your baseball draft when the NBA kind of rules the fantasy world with a limp fist. I would imagine most of your league is asleep by now. The Rotowhine editorial board’s expert advice: You should stay awake. That will be $39.95.
Here’s a list of 10 players who will be a major factor in the fantasy landscape over the next crucial couple of months.
Enjoy it. Either that, or go back to studying for your baseball draft.
1. Jason Kidd
New Jersey might have no choice but to trade Kidd, and the fantasy implications could be huge. Can the Nets get anything close to fair value in return now that Kidd’s gripes have gone public? It’s uncertain, but one thing we know is that they might not demand a point guard in return. The reason? Marcus Williams. Kidd himself could go to Dallas or Cleveland or elsewhere. His numbers should stay around where they are (although he might not rebound as well as he has been since that is not possible to do).
The fantasy fallout: Williams instantly becomes one of the better assist guys in the league with full-time run. He’ll score and rebound adequately as well while turning the ball over at a frightening rate.
2. Dwyane Wade
Wade is not himself, and with the Heat resembling my 1994 college intramural team (only less likely to be listening to Snoop Dogg’s "Doggystyle"), it could be time to shut him down. This would be a huge blow to any Wade owner, and a huge boon to anyone chasing that owner in the standings going forward.
The fantasy fallout: Shaq probably joins Wade in street clothes and the Heat turn to Ricky Davis and Mark Blount to ride out the season. Pat Riley goes on a seven-state killing spree. Pick up Davis and enjoy the meaningless stats he is so good at providing in times like these. Pick up Blount and enjoy his 17-foot jumpers leading to 15-19 points, his four rebounds and no blocks, steals or assists.
3. Tracy McGrady
Some team in your league suffered through the inevitable McGrady injury and is ready to make their move now that he’s back. Not so fast. McGrady is all askew this season, and the Rockets had more of a hop in their step without him. Temper your expectations.
The fantasy fallout: Houston doesn’t have the stones to trade McGrady, so they’ll probably continue to tread water with him missing a week or two here and there due to... hell, just open WebMD.com and randomly click on a symptom. McGrady probably has it. He will still put up good enough numbers to help owners looking to sneak into the top couple of spots. Unfortunately, his return to full-time work spells trouble for the consistent fantasy relevance of Rafer Alston, Bonzi Wells and Luis Scola.
4. Gilbert Arenas
Agent Zero has taken his nickname literally this season - he’s sure given me close to nothing. There’s talk that he will return sooner rather than later, but there’s also talk of him shutting it down for the season.
The fantasy fallout: Since I have Arenas, there’s no way that he’ll come back this year. In reality, why would he? I think the talk of his return is a lot of internet blabber on his part. Lord knows I appreciate internet blabber - it is my stock in trade - but I can’t see the Wiz tolerating Arenas’ antics while they are actually performing well and playing defense without him. Gilbert would rather fake a rehab setback than accept a limited role down the stretch.
5. Gerald Wallace
Wallace has picked up where he left off last year while adding three-pointers to his already near-full repetoire. This guy is setting himself up as a second-round pick next year. If you are lucky enough to have him and also to not be me (I have Wallace but also have Arenas and Jermaine O’Neal, so it doesn’t matter), enjoy it. Just be careful: Crash is known to take the show-biz phrase "break a leg" a little too literally.
The fantasy fallout: Wallace is roaming the perimeter more this year - his rebounds are down and threes are up - so hopefully that keeps his body from breaking down. If he’s healthy the rest of the year, your team is likely to be in the running for a title.
6. Mike Bibby
Bibby has been rumored to be traded since the end of last year. This is as good a time as any for the Kings to move him. His fantasy relevance is shrinking as it is and he makes more sense on a contender where he doesn’t have to do too much.
The fantasy fallout: With Kevin Martin the man here, and Beno Udrih ready to take the reins, Sacramento would be foolish not to get what they can for Bibby now from a contender desperate for a point guard. Bibby’s value is all gravy to his owners at this point, anyways... if you happen to be in contention with him, congratulations. There aren’t too many spots he could end up, however, where he’ll improve his stats significantly. Hang on to Udrih if you can, as well.
7. Lamar Odom
Andrew Bynum’s injury crushed legions of fantasy geeks everywhere. While Kobe has been a monster since the injury, Lamar Odom’s owners are wondering if he’s going to step it up any time soon. His scoring is way down and he has only hit three total 3-pointers in January. Now is the time for Lamar to step it up.
The fantasy fallout: Odom will rebound the bejesus out of the ball, but it appears he is what he is this season and won’t provide the scoring or assists we’ve come to expect. Until Bynum comes back, expect Kobe to put up fantasy numbers as good as anyone this side of King James.
8. Kevin Durant
For all he has going against him this year - poor shooting, lack of boards, bad team, rookie learning curve - Durant is still putting up pretty nice numbers. Naturally he’ll only improve and there’s no reason he won’t be better in the next three months than he was in the previous three. He is averaging over a three a game while shooting just 28.1 percent from long distance. He still gets over a block a game and nearly a steal. He has to improve on his 4.2 rebounds and his 40 percent shooting.
The fantasy fallout: Durant is a candidate for a huge second half. He’s had a half-season to test the waters, now it’s time for his incredible talent to take over as more games get more meaningless for Seattle. If he can resist the urge to chuck long two-pointers at every opportunity and find more creative ways to score from all over the court, this is one of the better buy-low guys out there.
9. Kyle Lowry
Mike Conley’s injury shouldn’t keep him out any longer, but my gosh what else do we need in order for Lowry to become a full-time staff member in Memphis? He’s a salivating fantasy possibility who has seen his stats and playing time fluctuate wildly. We’re holding our breath that Lowry turns into a second-half fantasy stud as the Grizzlies play out the string.
The fantasy fallout: Hopefully you still have Lowry - I dropped him too early out of necessity - and hopefully you enjoy 5-8 guys who rebound like power forwards. There’s not a lot he can’t do out there in an offense like Memphis’, so your only fear is Conley. If it makes sense to play Lowry full time to see what he’s got the rest of the way, it makes as much sense to do the same with Conley. Memphis will probably give their starting job back to Mike, Jr., when he’s ready.
10. Troy Murphy
Yes, Troy Murphy. With Jermaine O’Neal walking around in a full body cast these days, now is the time when the once-viable Murphy can and should step it up. I could see him giving you 15 and 9 with a three per game... that’s way better than he’s done at any point in Indiana.
The fantasy fallout: O’Neal may shut it down completely - at that point, it is up to Murphy. He still hasn’t quite grabbed the bull, as they say, so we remain skeptical that he can be a starter week in and week out. Just make sure he isn’t available in your league.
This Week’s Tip: Don’t fall in love with your team. If you are in anywhere from 2nd to 6th place in your league and you aren’t trying to trade three or four of your best players, you are likely doomed to bridesmaid status. Don’t be afraid to make a move!
Whine Rack: There seems to have been an inordinate amount of blowouts this year - maybe a stat geek with more time on his hands than me can figure out if it is significant - but I always seem to have guys going in these 111-83 games where nobody plays more than 30 minutes. It’s a major gut punch to see a score like this, and if it keeps up before long I’m going to be writing a column devoted to complaining about such things or something.
