This is a special feature from FantasyFanatics.com, the web’s top fantasy sports resource.
Picking a star in the NBA draft is a difficult task for any GM. Avoiding a relative bust can be difficult as well. The same can be said for fantasy owner in evaluating a former first round pick for a fantasy roster spot. Consider that only 18 of the 29 first round picks in 2004 have enjoyed fantasy relevance this season – with Tony Allen, Delonte West, J.R. Smith, and Dorell Wright barely making the cut. In 2005, it was worse as only 16 of 30 first-rounders are having an impact on the fantasy scene this year. Even if you take into account the two players sidelined by injuries, Shaun Livingston (2004) and Sean May (2005), you still have only about a 60% success rate. If you solely look at the top 20 picks of each draft, only 58% of the players hold some fantasy significance. With that in mind, here’s a look at two match-ups involving players taken at the same draft slot in the 2004 and 2005 NBA drafts with a similar fantasy impact.
The Second Overall Pick:
Emeka Okafor (2004) vs. Marvin Williams (2005)
The History: Both players were drafted in the NBA fresh off national titles in college. Emeka Okafor was one of the Huskies’ go-to-guys, along with fellow 2004 lottery pick Ben Gordon. Okafor has been solid, but unspectacular, in his first 3 ½ seasons with the Bobcats, averaging a double-double with two blocked shots a game. He has been limited by injuries, playing only in two-thirds of his team’s games in his first three seasons. Marvin Williams did not even start for the Tar Heels on their title run. Nonetheless, enough potential was displayed to push him past more logical need picks for Atlanta, Deron Williams and Chris Paul, to the number two overall selection. His forgettable rookie campaign was followed up by a decent second season in which he improved almost all of his fantasy significant statistics. He was limited to 64 games last year due to injury, but he has proven to be somewhat durable otherwise.
The Numbers: Okafor provides strong rebounding and blocked shots, and is one of the best options for these two categories in the game. However, he has more career games played than career assists, which negates his modest turnover numbers. He shoots an acceptable field goal percentage, but is dreadful from the line and seems to be getting worse. Williams does not rebound as well as you would expect, considering that he spends some time playing the power forward position. The good news is that he has improved his rebounding average in each of his seasons in the league. What compounds the lack of big-time rebounding, and lack of shot blocks, is the fact that he has abandoned the three point shot. The advantage to Williams not hoisting up threes, especially for a career 24% three point shooter, is that he has his field goal percentage approaching 50%. Along with his rebounding average, his scoring and steals averages have increased in each season. His two assists per game is a weak spot to his game.
The Current Situation: Okafor is the cornerstone for the Bobcats franchise, however, it appears that he is more of a glorified role player than a true feature performer. He should continue to see steady minutes barring more injury woes. Williams seems to be finding his stride in the professional ranks. He plays on a team that has a bit of a log jam at the forward/wing positions, but he seems to have fortified himself as a primary option when it comes to minute distribution.
The Fantasy Winner – this season: Marvin Williams. This is a bit of an upset, I know, but Okafor’s 53% from the line hurts more than the four-plus rebounds and one and half more blocks that he offers. The fact that scoring is in Williams’ favor and difference in field goal percentage is so close, provides the former Tar Heel with the edge. However, if you need rebounds and blocks and can withstand the free throw percentage, Okafor is definitely your guy.
The Fantasy Winner – career: Marvin Williams. The injury history of Okafor and the fact that his production has hit a plateau keeps me from predicting big things for the big man. Williams has the higher ceiling and continues to increase his productivity each season.
The Sixth Overall Pick:
Josh Childress (2004) vs. Martell Webster (2005)
The History: Josh Childress came to the league from Stanford after his junior year with two trademarks: his afro and the funky release of his jump shot. Since arriving to Atlanta, he has proven that his unorthodox jumper can be effective, shooting a career field goal percentage of over 51% and over 35% from downtown. He has also proven that he can rebound at a respectable rate, despite his wiry frame. Childress has had to learn to thrive in his role off the bench. Martell Webster was selected right out of high school. He came out with a Glen Rice-type upside as a shooter. He has not lived up to those high standards yet. His field goal percentage in his first two years in the league was sub-40%. Webster would have benefited from at least a year in college, as he was over-matched, physically and mentally, prior to this season.
The Numbers: Childress has taken his shooting accuracy to a new level, shooting over 59% from the field this season. He is also deadly from the free throw line, shooting better than 86% for this season. He is still able to find his offense, even as a reserve, posting a double digit scoring mark. Childress is an underrated rebounder, with a career average of almost six boards a game. Webster started the season as though he was going to live up to his lofty potential. However, his season has hit a few bumps along the way, statistically at least. He is posting career highs in all important fantasy categories so far this season, including a scoring average of over 11 points and a rebound average over four. The encouraging sign with Webster is that he is getting more comfortable with his three point shot, shooting 39% from beyond the arc this season.
The Current Situation: Childress has established himself as a perennial candidate for “Sixth Man of the Year”. Still, coming off the bench does not always guarantee the minutes will be there every game. He would benefit statistically going to a team where he would start. Childress’ role seems on solid ground as he is getting 30 minutes a game on an improving Hawks team. Webster’s minutes are not as assured in Portland. He has one of the stronger benches in the league backing him up in Jarrett Jack, James Jones, and Travis Outlaw. The Blazers seem committed to giving Webster ample opportunity this season, so he should be fine for around 30 minutes a game the rest of the way.
The Fantasy Winner – this season: Josh Childress. I like his reserve role better than I like Webster’s starting one. His slight edge in rebounding and steals and his huge edge in field goal percentage give him the advantage.
The Fantasy Winner – career: Martell Webster. The upside on Webster’s game is far and away superior to that of Childress. At age 24, Childress is still early in his prime. However, I just do not see him or his numbers getting dramatically better than he is posting right now. Webster has the makings of an all-star caliber player.
Notes on the two drafts
The 2004 draft may have the 2005 draft beat on star power, with such players like Dwight Howard, Ben Gordon, Luol Deng, Andre Iguodala, Al Jefferson, Josh Smith, and Kevin Martin. Regardless, I would not necessary call it a better draft. Why? Well, look at the second round of each draft. The 2005 draft produced a whopping eight players that have had at least a bit of fantasy relevance this season: Brandon Bass (pick 33), C.J. Miles (34), Ronny Turiaf (37), Travis Diener (38), Monta Ellis (40), Louis Williams (45), Andray Blatche (49), and Ryan Gomes (50), not to mention Amir Johnson (56) who has the looks of a player. Compare that to the group of significant second round players of 2004: Anderson Varejao (31), Chris Duhon (39), and Trevor Ariza (44) with Royal Ivey (38) a distant fourth. The biggest top ten dud of each draft: Rafael Araujo (2004, pick 8) and Ike Diogu (2005, pick 9), another feather in the 2005 draft’s cap.
